US Inflation Data Changed the Balances

Yesterday, the domestic market in the stock market side we look at Russia’s first department for flights limitations decisions session Turkey brings with sales went into a plus index of purchases response later in the day and finished the day rising. Focusing on the epidemic measures to be released from the cabinet, the stock market followed a fluctuating course on the second trading day of the week in parallel with the pricing abroad. On the exchange rate side, the CBRT decision was put on hold as of the beginning of the week, while the movements remained in a narrow band. While continuing to withdraw after inflation data from the USA, the exchange rate benefited from this movement. President Erdogan announced the cautionary decisions that everyone is waiting for, and a partial closure came out of the decision. Accordingly, a curfew was imposed for two weeks and afterwards from 19:00 in the week for two weeks, to be decided according to the progress in the number of cases. Intercity travel is restricted unless it is mandatory.

Yesterday, there was data that global markets were eagerly awaiting. In the US, it was 2.6 percent in March as increased vaccines and financial incentives revived suppressed demand, according to the results announced yesterday. The expectation for this data was 2.5 percent. In February, the annual increase in consumer prices in the US was 1.7 percent. With this result, annual inflation in March marked the highest level since August 2018. In March, consumer prices excluding food and energy in the country increased by 0.3 percent on a monthly basis. Economists expected this data to be 0.2 percent. On an annual basis, consumer prices excluding food and energy increased by 1.6 percent in March. On a monthly basis, the headline consumer price index was 0.6%, the biggest increase since August 2012. The expectation was that it would be realized as 1.5 percent. It can be said that Biden’s support checks also had an effect on the increase in inflation. When we look at the data, it shows that it does not deviate much from expectations. In this respect, Fed chief Jerome Powell is unlikely to change his view that higher inflation will be temporary in the coming months.

Global stock markets surged to record highs, led by technology-related stocks, as Treasury bond yields eased after March US consumer price data showed that the inflation rate was not as fast as expected. As the dollar fell, it rose from its lowest levels in more than a week, the traditional tool of inflation protection. Stock markets, especially technology-weighted indices, whose stocks could be affected by rising debt costs, were among those rising. It closed at a new record high with this outlook and the Nasdaq composite index jumped.

Most of the Asia-Pacific stock indices followed Wall Street’s rise, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng index was at the forefront of gains in the region. The benchmark US Treasury bonds continued to decline, marking a three-week low. Nikkei is observed to drop by 0.4%, as Japan’s rising coronavirus cases raise doubts about the economy reopening 100 days before Tokyo hosts the Olympics.

The increase in inflation continues in the USA. The expectation announced yesterday was 2.6 percent, while it was 2.5 percent. While the economic activity gained support with vaccination and support packages, the economic data announced support growth. The PPK meeting that will take place tomorrow may cause dynamism in USDTRY. Markets do not expect rate change from the MPC meeting. Within the framework of the developments experienced, the resistance levels of 8.17 and 8.23 ​​TL will be followed in the exchange rate, which is expected to continue the upward movement. In case of possible downward movement, the support levels 8.08 and 8.00 will be tested.

It would have declined for the first time since November 2020. The CBRT PPK meeting to be held tomorrow will be the first meeting chaired by Chairman Şahap Kavcıoğlu. The market does not expect an interest rate increase from the Central Bank. The statements of the European Central Bank chief Lagarde tomorrow may cause price volatility in the exchange rate. Depending on the developments experienced, resistance levels of 9.75 and 9.80 TL should be followed in EURTRY, which is expected to move downwards. In case of possible selling pressure, the support levels of 9.65 and 9.60 maintain their importance.

Considering the data announced, the CPI index in the US in March was 2.6 percent annually, just above the expectations. German ZEW economic sentiment has declined for the first time since November 2020. In an interview with CBS, FED chief Powell said that while growth will come very strong in the second half of the year, the growth rate could exceed 6-7 percent. The speech to be made by the President of the European Central Bank Lagarde during the day maintains its importance in terms of parity. If we examine it technically, if reaction purchases are seen, 1.1980 and 1.2020 resistance levels should be followed, whereas if selling pressure continues, 1.1940 and 1.1900 support levels are expected to be tested.

The support package, which is expected to be put into effect by the US government, is expected to have a positive reflection on gold ounce. In addition, the US March CPI Index, which was announced yesterday, resulted in an upward movement below expectations. The tension between the USA and Russia may cause volatility in gold prices. From a technical point of view, if the upward movement continues, the $ 1755 and $ 1770 resistance levels should be followed. If the sales pressure continues, the support levels 1735 and 1720 will be closely monitored.

While the UK economy shrank by 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2021, industrial production increased by 1.0 percent per month. The IMF revised the growth expectation of the UK economy from 4.5 percent to 5.3 percent. March inflation rate in the US was 2.6 percent on an annual basis. It can be said that the inflation rate, which is above the expectations, has increased the economic activity. In case of possible selling pressure in the pair, which continues its upward trend, 1.3750 and 1.3720 support levels should be followed. If the uptrend continues, resistance levels 1.3800 and 1.3860 are important.

In the US, the inflation rate for March was 2.6 percent, above the expectations. In an interview with CBS, FED chief Powell said that while growth will come very strong in the second half of the year, the growth rate could exceed 6-7 percent. During the day, the statements of Kuroda, the head of the Bank of Japan, may cause price volatility in the pair. From a technical point of view, 109.50 and 110.00 resistance levels will be followed if it continues its upward movement. In case of sales pressure, the support levels of 108.50 and 108.20 are expected to be tested.

According to the statement made by OPEC, Oil Production increased by 200 thousand barrels in March. While a clear recovery is expected in the world economy as of the summer, the acceleration of vaccination in Europe is important for Brent oil. In addition, Brent oil, which will be announced today, may create volatility in pricing. Technically speaking, if the upward movement continues, resistance levels at $ 64.50 and $ 65.20 should be followed. In case of a downward trend with the developments experienced, the support levels of 63.70 and 63.00 dollars are important.

While the US inflation rate was realized above the expectations, it was seen that it reflected positively in gold ounce. After the CBRT MPC meeting, which will be held tomorrow, below gram activity can be seen. No change in interest is expected from the meeting. In case the upward movement under gram continues, the resistance levels of 460 and 468 TL should be followed, whereas in the case of a downward movement, the 450 and 445 TL support levels are important for the downward movement.

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