We Are Closing The Week With US PPI Data

It closed at a record high on Thursday as US bond yields dropped yesterday after more negative labor market data than expected, as technology and other growth stocks rose. Fed chief Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the central bank is not close to reducing its support for the US economy, saying that the anticipated rise in prices this year will likely be temporary. With the latest data, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bill yields continued to retreat from 1.776%, the 14-month high at the end of March, falling as low as 1.624% since March 26. The recent decline in returns has helped tech companies, the industry that recorded the biggest gains of the session. Stocks such as Apple (NASDAQ :), Microsoft (NASDAQ 🙂 and Amazon (NASDAQ 🙂 have been the biggest rising stocks in the S&P 500.

European stocks hit record highs on Thursday as optimism rose around the economic recovery driven by the global rebound, after it signaled that it is not in a hurry to tighten monetary policy in the US. the index increased by 0.6%, erasing all losses due to the pandemic of the index.

The European Central Bank announced the minutes of the March meeting. It was stated that high interest rates were not a cause for concern. It was reported in the minutes that there is an expectation of an increase in inflation and an increase in bond yields with a better outlook in the global economy and this increase is not a cause for concern. “In this context, the Governing Council avoided giving the impression that it was too focused on bond yields.” expression was used.

ECB President Lagarde stated that the Kovid-19 outbreak and the measures against it will continue to negatively affect economic activities in the Euro Zone in the short term, and that economic activities will recover with the removal of epidemic measures. The President of the ECB pointed out that favorable financing conditions could be maintained and stated that the 1.85 trillion euro asset purchase envisaged under the Pandemic Emergency Asset Purchase Program (PEPP) may not need to be used entirely if favorable financing conditions can be maintained. Stating that if market conditions so require, Lagarde reserves the right to increase the amount of PEPP, “PEPP can be readjusted if necessary to maintain favorable financing conditions.” said.

Wall Street indexes rose after Powell said the Fed has the means to curb any inflationary pressures and that these pressures are expected to be temporary. The S&P 500 broke a new record with low transaction volume. mainly Apple Inc. and found support from the rise of Tesla Inc. Energy producers and bank shares fell. The rise in futures indices in the USA continues. Asian is mixed. The Chinese stock market is falling following the announcement of the fastest increase in PPI since 2018. Post-Powell US bonds were purchased, while it closed at 1.6192%, down five basis points. CBRT will publish the results of the expectations survey for April at 10:00. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will speak at 17:00 and 19:00.

FED Chairman Powell, who made a statement yesterday, stated that the recovery in the US economy is still very unstable. In addition, it was emphasized once again that the upward trend in inflation was temporary. A wolf coming weeks pressuring Turkey not generate line with expectations announced at the beginning of week horizontal directional movement in the exchange rate which will be held until the MPC meeting is expected to continue. Within the framework of the developments experienced, resistance levels of 8.30 and 8.35 TL will be followed in the exchange rate, which is expected to continue upward movement. In case of a possible downward movement, the support levels 8.10 and 8.05 will be tested.

European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that the light was seen at the end of the tunnel in the Euro Zone, and that the economy will gain momentum after the removal of the epidemic restrictions. At the same time, Lagarde stated that they expect the increase to continue in the coming months, while also referring to inflation. The European Central Bank announced that they could end the acquisitions in March 2022 if their basic estimates hold. Depending on the developments experienced, resistance levels of 9.75 and 9.85 TL should be followed in EURTRY, which is expected to move downwards. In case of possible selling pressure, the support levels of 9.70 and 9.60 maintain their importance.

Although there are positive signals about the course of the economy in the FOMC meeting minutes, the participants stated that the increase in the yield curve reflects optimism about the outlook. FED Chairman Powell, who made a statement yesterday, stated that the recovery in the US economy is still very unstable. In addition, it was emphasized once again that the upward trend in inflation was temporary. If we examine it technically, if reaction purchases are seen, 1.1965 and 1.2000 resistance levels should be followed, whereas if selling pressure continues, 1.1860 and 1.1825 support levels are expected to be tested.

Ounce of gold strengthens its upward movement with support package expectations. Powell’s statement yesterday emphasized that they have the tools to control inflation. In the FOMC meeting minutes, it was stated that despite the recovery of the economy, they were far from the targets. It was also emphasized in the Minutes that they will be based on results rather than estimates for policy change. From a technical point of view, if the reaction purchases continue, the resistance levels of $ 1775 and $ 1805 should be followed. In case of sales pressure, 1725 and 1700 support levels will be monitored closely.

Yesterday’s expectation was announced as 61.7 while it was 54.6, and the higher-than-expected data give positive signals about the economic recovery. The IMF revised the growth demand of the UK economy from 4.5 percent to 5.3 percent. British Prime Minister Johnson stated that it is sad that the cases increased in France, and he is worried that the cases spread to the UK. In case of possible selling pressure in the pair, which continues its upward trend, 1.3700 and 1.3665 support levels should be followed. If the upward trend continues, 1.3760 and 1.3795 resistance levels are important.

FED President Powell, in his statements at the seminar he attended yesterday, stated that inflation will continue to increase, but they have the tools to control it. In the minutes of the meeting, it was stated that although the economy is progressing well, it is far from the targets. We will follow the news closely on the last trading day of the week. From a technical point of view, if it continues its upward movement, 110.00 and 110.80 resistance levels will be followed. In case of sales pressure, the support levels of 108.50 and 108.00 are expected to be tested.

Increasing Covid-19 cases continue to be priced stress on Brent oil. While the IMF revises its global growth forecast upwards in its report, the improvement in financial conditions and the increase in economic activity reflects on Brent oil positively due to the energy need that may arise. While there are expectations that a supply and demand balance will be formed after the developments, production will be increased gradually after May. Technically speaking, if the upward movement continues, resistance levels at $ 63.20 and $ 64.30 should be followed. In case of a downward trend with the developments experienced, the support levels of 62.30 and 61.50 dollars are important.

The upward movement seen in USDTRY reflects positively on gold grams. Yesterday, FED chair Powell, speaking at the video conference he attended under the name of global economy, stated that the economy is far from the desired level. Within the framework of the developments experienced, it will be determinant for the upward movement under the possible dynamism that can be seen in the dollar index. If the upward movement under the gram continues, the 470 and 480 TL resistance levels should be followed, while in the case of a downward movement, the 450 and 435 TL support levels are important for the downward movement.

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