World Predictions for 2021
2021 World Forecasts
The IMF seems to have made very optimistic predictions for the world in 2021. The growth of the developed economies by 5.1 percent, the USA by 6.4 percent and the Euro Zone by 4.4 percent can only be possible with an advanced solution and base effect in the epidemic problem. Similar optimism applies to developing countries.
2021 Turkey Forecast
Turkey IMF’s forecast for 2021 also reflects the same optimism. I made the mid-year and year-end exchange rate calculations using the TL and YSD-denominated GDP estimates and the final year-end USD exchange rate for the previous year. The forecast of 7.78 year-end rate for 2021 seemed very optimistic to me. Because the rate is now 8.15. It seems that the year-end inflation and unemployment rates are also quite optimistic. It should not be difficult to predict that any upward change in exchange rates will drive down GDP and per capita income in USD.
In summary the IMF should tell you the world (especially in the developed world) and estimated that it may be possible for Turkey but by resolving significantly outbreak of Covidien-19 and the base effect. Even if the epidemic problem cannot be solved to the desired extent, it would not be wrong to expect that the base effect will have a positive effect on the indicators. On the other hand, the developments in the first quarter of the year we left behind do not give us the impression that we can quickly change the negative effects of the epidemic in the remaining 9 months.
The predictions in the IMF’s Report on the World Economic Outlook are based on an optimistic scenario and even reflect an atmosphere that is mixed with wishes.
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