The vaccine problem is getting deeper in the world, there is a high increase in cases and there is a problem in vaccine supply. Rich countries are ahead in vaccination, but the spread has not been prevented due to lack of equality in vaccine distribution. The capitalist system, which cannot afford the bill of the April quarantine, again sees the property as more important than the heart.
The increase in cases in the country is also at record levels, and the restrictions are expected to increase with the month of Ramadan. The necessary explanation will be made at the beginning of the week. Since what is happening is obvious, we do not enter into any criticism. Let’s just say that in such a process, it is imperative to meet the essential expenses of people, and how correct is it to be proud of giving more while it is meaningful to give a deficit from the budget at this time? Or providing discounts to those who have income instead of continuing their work allowance ?!
While food prices in the world are at the highest level of recent years, inflation is increasing in our country and people cannot earn money due to the pandemic outside inflation, in other words, their purchasing power is rapidly weakening. In the period when all such negativities are at the same time, the prices are going crazy. With the expectation that the demand for food will increase in Ramadan, we cannot keep up with the increase in market prices. This is not a job to be done patiently with prayer, it is necessary to impose deterrent sanctions against these injustices as a requirement of the social state. Otherwise, income inequality will not only cause an economic gap, but the social dimension of the business may have a much higher bill.
In our country, we feel more economic troubles with each passing day, so we speak more. While it is obvious what not to do and what to do, the process is really sad. In a country with such a high foreign dependency, how should the increase in the exchange rate not disturb the citizens, while the inflation and the current account deficit are extremely high? Every rise in the exchange rate means a decrease in the income of the citizen, therefore, those who save, good or bad, have to choose an alternative. These savings have recently passed under the pillow from banks. According to the data released yesterday, residents made foreign exchange sales last week, but the transition from the foreign currency they sell to TL deposits was very limited. At this point, let’s first state the following:
Yes, the decrease is too much in the last two weeks, but this is due to the increase in foreign exchange. The dollar rate, which saw the levels of 8.50 in November, declined to 6.90 in February and was at the level of 7.20 just before the dismissal of the CBRT President. We see from the data that foreign currency purchases are made at the first or second levels. The rise in a week was evaluated as a sales opportunity. Sales were made in the same way last week. These high levels in the currency may continue to be considered a sale for those waiting. On the other hand, as can be seen from the figures, every decrease in the exchange rate since August 2018 has been evaluated as a purchase, and foreign currency deposits have reached record levels. When we look at the 4 months in the Ağbal period, there was no decrease in foreign exchange deposits, now we cannot say that the dollarization has ended while the uncertainties regarding the monetary policy continue and the rate cut forecast is so high towards the third quarter of the year.
his attitude is also quite negative. The output in the last two weeks has approached $ 2.5 billion. We could not make good use of the abundance of money and risk appetite during the pandemic period. In the upcoming period, the increase in the expectation that the Fed will increase interest rates earlier than expected due to inflation means an increase in exit from GOPs. This period may also be difficult for us.
Indices in global markets have risen this week, led by stocks appreciated in the process, but GOPs are behind because pricing has begun and interest in guaranteed assets is on the rise, although risk appetite did not decrease sharply in the first phase. negative, especially the levels on the side. The hold above 1.430 in the index has not been achieved this week and we are watching the 1.398 support. Without the support of the banks, we cannot see the rises that will be experienced as solid. For this reason, we insistently underline the situation on the bank’s side.
The 8.0 level is maintained and the 8.16 level was the equilibrium zone this week, it means that the 8.35 resistance is very lively. In downsides, the first step is 7.87, but keeping 7.87 means that the uptrend is still strong.
Previous currency withdrawals may be limited. There is no doubt that the biggest surprise in this meeting, where no interest rate cut is expected, will be the interest rate hike, and this possibility may erase the loss of TL in the last month. The decision text is important for the markets pricing the non-interest rate change, that is, preserving the expressions in the Ağbal period may prevent further losses in TL. However, we come to the same place again, which is trust and credibility. The expressions in the PPK meeting cannot be sufficient to achieve this. The following attitudes and actions will be decisive.