How realistic is the $ 80,000 target of the bitcoin options market in April?

As the countdown continues for Coinbase’s highly anticipated IPO to occur next month, options traders believe Bitcoin will once again rise to all-time highs in the coming weeks.

On March 24, the founders of crypto analytics firm Glassnode tweeted that options traders at the peer-to-peer crypto derivatives exchange Deribit were interested in contracts that expire on April 30 with a strike price of $ 80,000.

A contract worth a total of 4,000 BTC was purchased, aiming at a price of $ 80,000.

If the price is less than $ 80,000 at the end of April, they will become worthless as the contracts expire. In this case, it will reveal that the Bitcoin markets are far from the peak that derivatives investors expect.

On the other hand, crypto derivatives data collector Skew calculates the probability that the BTC price will be above $ 80,000 only 6.19 percent, based on market data for the April 30 contract.

Probability prediction of $ 80,000 BTC transactions as of April 30: Skew

There is an increase in volume in contracts with a transaction price of $ 120,000. This means that some investors believe the bitcoin price will more than double in the next five weeks. Skew estimates that Bitcoin has only a 2.15 percent chance of reaching $ 100,000 by the April 30 expiration date.

Skew data shows that April 30 contracts are currently the third most popular option among options traders, with the amount of open positions currently reaching the equivalent of 38,700 BTC.

The June 21 contracts will take the second place with a short position worth 42,300 BTC, while contracts worth 117,900 BTC or the notional value of $ 6 billion will expire by March 26.

Open positions of BTC options by contract expiration date: Skew

Although the Chicago Mercantile Exchange institutional derivatives exchange entered the Bitcoin options industry in January 2020, Deribit is still the first in option trading volume.

Skew estimates that 91 percent of BTC options contracts traded in the last 24 hours changed hands on Deribit, followed by with 5 percent, OKEx with 2 percent, and CME and LedgerX at roughly 1 percent each.

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