The World Is Changing, Why Shouldn’t The Markets Change?

US stocks rose on Tuesday, after falling and rising on the basis of indices, showing mixed movements at the beginning of the week. Nasdaq climbed nearly 4%, offsetting losses from the previous session as US bond yields declined and investors regrouped technology stocks that they had sold for some time. Tesla Inc experienced the biggest leaps in almost a year, while Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ 🙂 and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ 🙂 experienced the biggest daily spikes in five weeks. Tech stocks have been experiencing sharp losses in recent weeks as rising returns raise concerns about their higher valuation. The Nasdaq posted its biggest daily rise since November 4th. it broke an intraday record, but retreated from its previous highs at the close. As the economy gives a good appearance as the signs of recovery from the epidemic increase, its products and services are in demand, known as cyclical and small capital shares appear to perform better this year. Tech stocks will also likely end the year higher, but may not be the leader as they did in last year’s rally.

European stocks soared on Tuesday as a surge in oil and utility companies’ shares helped compensate for losses in mining sector stocks. Bond yields boomed after rapid vaccination implementations, while continental stock markets came under pressure, and the massive US coronavirus aid package fueled concerns about a potential increase in inflation. Still, the major European indices outperformed some of their tech-heavy US counterparts.

According to data from yesterday, the 19-member Euro Zone fell 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the previous quarter. GDP in the Euro Zone decreased by 4.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the same period of 2019. Employment increased by 0.4 percent in the EU and 0.3 percent in the Eurozone in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the previous quarter.

We also came more from an organization updated estimates related to Turkey yesterday. OECD, 2021 When world growth forecast to 5.6 percent, the growth prospects for Turkey than doubled from 5.9 to 2.9 percent by removing more updated. Turkey, China and India in economic activity strong fiscal measures with the agency received indicating that pre-epidemic levels thanks to the recovery in the construction and manufacturing sectors, while Turkey and India in particular highlighted could trigger inflation and rising commodity prices.

While Wall Street indices are falling in futures this morning, Asian indices are generally positive, led by the Chinese stock market. CSI 300 index completed the day yesterday with a loss of more than 2%, although government supports, known as the “National Team” in China, intervened in the markets by buying funds. The index fell 14% from its 13-year peak in February in just 14 days. Chinese indices are moving upward this morning. We expect the index to start the day positively.

After the decline, the dollar / TL made up for its losses on the first trading day of the week. It tested the 1.60 levels again during the day on US Bond yields. If the US CPI Index, which will be announced today, is strong, there may be changes in inflation expectations, while the bond market should be monitored closely. In addition, the resignation news from important financial institutions of our country and developments in politics at the beginning of the week puts pressure on the exchange rate. We will follow the data flow closely during the day. Within the framework of the developments experienced, while the resistance levels of 7.75 and 7.85 TL should be followed in the exchange, which is around 7.63 TL above the psychological threshold of 7.50 TL, in case of sales pressure, 7.50 and 7.41 support levels are important.

The exchange rate, which showed an upward movement with domestic and international developments, is traded at 9.07 TL, just above the critical level of 9 TL. As announced yesterday, it decreased by 4.9 percent on an annual basis, while it was realized in line with the expectations with 0.7 percent for the quarter. Following the resignation news from important financial institutions of our country and developments in politics, the sales pressure in the exchange rate increases, while the upward movement is strengthening. It remains important that the European Central Bank will announce tomorrow. If the sales in the currencies of developing countries continue, the resistance levels of 9.20 and 9.40 TL should be followed in the exchange rate, which is expected to continue its upward movement. In case of possible selling pressure, the support levels of 9.00 and 8.75 are important.

With the retreat seen yesterday, which has been in an upward movement since last week and saw above the $ 92 level, it was seen that the pair has moved upwards. While the US CPI Index, which will be announced today, maintains its importance, the interest rate decision to be announced by the European Central Bank tomorrow should be followed carefully.

If we look at it technically, if reaction purchases are seen, 1.1900 and 1.1920 resistance levels should be followed. If the selling pressure continues, the support levels of 1.1850 and 1.1820 are important.

With the pause of the upward movement in the dollar index yesterday, the pound, which gained value against the dollar, showed an upward movement again, while the data is important in terms of the course of the CPI Index GBPUSD, which will be announced on the US side today. GBPUSD is trading just below the 1.40 critical level at 1.3850. In addition, BoE Chairman Bailey said in a statement that it is likely to see an increase in inflation in the short term. In case of possible selling pressure in the pair, which continues its upward trend, 1.3835 and 1.3800 support levels should be followed. If the uptrend continues, 1.3875 and 1.3895 resistance levels are important.

After the dollar index is trading above the 92 level, the selling pressure under ounce continues as of the new year. From a broad perspective, it is seen that an ounce of gold has returned from the level of $ 1680 before the pandemic. The fact that the US bond yields again tested the 1.60 level yesterday, the pricing in the bond market is still important in terms of the course of gold. After the changes made while the senate approved the Kovid-19 outbreak support package in the USA, the package was again submitted for the approval of the House of Representatives.

When examined from a technical point of view, a persistence above the $ 1700 level must be seen for an upward movement to occur. In case of reaction purchases, 1720 and 1735 resistance levels should be followed. If the sales pressure continues, the support levels of 1695 and 1675 remain important.

As the USDJPY stalls after a long pause after the US dollar loses its strength in global markets, the dollar index and US bond yields should be closely monitored in order for the possible upward movement to occur again. Judging by the announced growth data of Japan, the Japanese economy grew by 11.7 percent annually, while it grew close to expectations with a quarterly increase of 2.8 percent. The results of today’s issuance are still important for USDJPY.

From a technical point of view, 109.30 and 109.70 resistance levels should be followed if it continues its upward movement. In case of sales pressure, the support levels of 108.50 and 108.00 are important.

After seeing a sharp rise after the OPEC meeting, Brent oil, which saw above $ 70, pulled back. If situations similar to Saudi Arabia’s attacks on oil facilities at the beginning of the week, it may create stress on pricing. In addition, as various financial institutions begin to revise their Brent oil year-end expectations, there is a consensus that the year-end oil price will be $ 70.

Technically speaking, if the upward movement continues, resistance levels at $ 66.75 and $ 64.95 should be followed. In case of a downward trend with the developments experienced, support levels of $ 66.25 and $ 65.70 are important.

With the withdrawal of the dollar index after a long period, the rise in gold per ounce positively affected the gram gold, while it was observed that the gram gold maintained its course with the appreciation of the Turkish lira against the dollar. As of the week, after the upward movement in the dollar / TL exchange rate, the 420 level is tested with a rapid rise, while it continues to be traded at the level of 419 TL just below this level. We will be closely following the developments that will occur during the day. In Gram Gold, if the upward movement continues, the 425 and 432 resistance levels should be followed, whereas in the case of a downward movement, the 412 and 405 support levels are important for the upward movement.

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