Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) price movement since 2011, according to a study by Kraken, reveals that the next peak price of the coin could be between $ 75k and $ 306k.
Analysis of the logarithmic growth curve connecting historical peak and bottom prices shows that if the Bitcoin price reaches $ 75,000, it will be too high and the current bull market will come to an end.
“Based on the previous cycles, it seems likely that the Bitcoin price will gradually rise and then hit the resistance by going up a parabolic, signaling the end of the fourth bull market,” the report noted.
Analysis of historical price declines provides a much bolder forecast. If BTC continues its current growth curve and experiences a decline similar to previous market crashes, the next bottom price could be around $ 30k.
Based on this bottom price, inferences can also be made about the next peak price, based on the extent of the decline.
Bitcoin Price Index: How much is 1 Bitcoin in TL? (BTC TL)
If Bitcoin is down 70 percent in the current cycle, the coin must decline to $ 102,000 before falling to $ 30,000.
It needs to rise to $ 306,000 for a 90 percent crash, and up to $ 221,000 if it crashes at 86 percent, which is the average retracement rate of previous market cycles. In all scenarios, Bitcoin is still far from seeing the peak.
March has been a historically bad month for Bitcoin, according to Kraken’s research, and the cryptocurrency has yielded in March only twice in its 12-year history.
On the other hand, the report states that Bitcoin’s current trend is similar to the first quarter of 2013, the most productive quarter in cryptocurrency’s history. This situation may indicate that the historical trend that caused the bad month of March may also change.
Bitcoin closed five consecutive months with positive returns as of translation release time. This situation had previously been seen only in 2017.