Strong Stance in TL Continues

Indices moved on the positive side yesterday in many countries, especially the USA, with optimism about the US financial stimulus package. In the US, as indices continued to rise on Monday, record closing peaks were tested as expectations for economic revival through financial incentives and continued vaccine distribution increased investor optimism regarding the return from pandemic-induced economic recession to pace of economic recovery. In addition to financial incentive expectations, developments regarding vaccines are also closely monitored in terms of their effect on pricing. Even reports that South Africa halted the launch of the vaccine, as a study showed that the AstraZeneca vaccine offered only limited protection against this country’s more infectious variant, was not enough to deteriorate the outlook of the stock markets. In this context, MSCI’s 50-country world stock index reached its ninth record level in 2021. One of the main drivers of global borrowing costs with rising expectations for financial incentives rose to 1.2%, the highest level since the peak of coronavirus uncertainty last March. Inflation indicator US 10-year breakeven rates rose to 2.21%, the highest since 2014. In Europe, Germany’s 10-year returns increased by 3 basis points to near -0.412%, the highest in five months.

While a positive outlook was formed in the indices in Europe, the markets followed the speech of Chiristine Lagarde from Germany. After seven consecutive months of strong increases, Germany’s industrial production was cut by 0% in December and the upward revision in November remained unchanged at 1.5%. Annual industrial production decreased by 1%. While the production of consumer goods and intermediate goods increased, the production of capital goods fell slightly. Due to the Christmas holiday, activity in the construction sector fell by 3.2% compared to the previous month. It seems unlikely that the German economy will recover itself from contraction once again, due to the ongoing coronavirus restrictions. Production expectations have recovered somewhat since November, but are still below summer levels. At the same time, the reduction in stocks in the second half of 2020 seems to have ended at the beginning of the year.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, “The increase in new types of coronavirus (Kovid-19), mutations in the virus and strict restrictive measures reveal significant downside risk to euro Zone economic activity.” said. Pointing out that the initiation of vaccination processes is “promising”, Lagarde said that citizens are still facing the social and economic consequences of the virus and that uncertainties about the future continue. Stating that monetary and fiscal policies should be maintained together, Lagarde noted that the harmonious monetary policy stance of the ECB in the current environment is necessary. This morning, while US futures moved almost flat with slight sellers, it is observed that indices in Asian markets are on the positive side. We expect the index to start the day with a slight increase.

While the economic data announced in the US last week were generally above market expectations, it was observed that the dollar gained value on a global basis in parallel with these data. Despite the strengthening of the dollar on a global basis and providing a permanence above the level of 91.00, the appreciation of the TL against the dollar continues. Last week, CBRT Governor Naci Ağbal’s statements that closed the door to short-term interest rate cut expectations and that the hawkish stance would continue continues to be the main factor in the appreciation of the Turkish lira. On the second trading day of the week, the appreciation in TL may continue and we will continue to closely monitor news that may affect pricing.

When we examined it technically, it was observed that it continued to be determinant at 7.10 level. With the continuation of the downward pressure caused by money inflows, if the downward movement in the exchange rate continues, the levels of 7.04, 6.95 and 6.90 are important support areas to be followed. In case of persistence above 7.10, resistance levels of 7.15, 7.22 and 7.30 can be followed.

The fact that the economic data announced in the US last week were generally above the market expectations, and continues to create selling pressure on the euro in the cross. The downside movements may continue with the continuation of the strong stance in the Turkish lira in the euro and euro / TL exchange rate, which depreciated on a global basis with the dollar index providing permanence above 91.00. In the past week, TL 8.62 is on the target for possible reaction increases in the exchange rate, which fell below the 200-day moving average of 8.62 TL and closed the week below this level. On the second trading day of the week, the appreciation of TL may continue and we will continue to closely monitor news that may affect pricing.

When we examine it technically, we see that the cross continues to be priced around the 8.55 level. As long as it remains below this level, if the downward trend continues, 8.48, 8.40 and 8.35 levels are important support levels to be followed, respectively. On the Euro side, resistance levels of 8.62, 8.70 and 8.75 can be followed in possible increases with appreciation.

Making a statement after the first FOMC meeting of the year, President Powell emphasized that the monetary policy would continue to support the economy until the epidemic ended, and the appreciation in the dollar, which started to gain value, continued last week. The fact that the economic data announced in the US throughout the past week generally exceeded the market expectations supported the appreciation of the dollar, while the parity followed a horizontal course in the first trading day of the week. The industrial production data announced in Germany on the first trading day of the week, which is quiet in terms of the data calendar, did not increase despite the expectation of 0.3% increase in December. We will continue to closely monitor the pricing and news flows in the market on the second trading day of the week.

When we analyzed it technically, it was observed that the pair continued to be determinant at 1.2060 level. If it continues to stay above 1.2060 level, 1.2100, 1.2150 and 1.2180 levels are important resistance levels to be followed, respectively. If the pair continues its downward movement, support levels of 1.2000, 1.1960 and 1.1920 can be followed.

While the dollar’s appreciation on a global basis was continuing, the fact that the data announced in the US last week and that the data were generally positive compared to the market expectations supported the dollar upward. In parallel with the US dollar index maintaining its permanence above the 91.00 level, the ounce of gold, which dropped below the 200-day moving average level of $ 1820 with its retreat last Thursday, tested above this level on the first trading day of the week. If pricing below this level in yellow metal continues, the selling pressure may increase, and we will continue to closely monitor the pricing and news flows in the market on the second trading day of the week.

When we examined it technically, it was observed that the ounce of gold continued to be determinant at the level of $ 1840. If we see upward movements under the ounce, the levels of 1840, 1848 and 1855, respectively, are important resistance levels to be followed. If the downward movements continue, the support levels 1835, 1827 and 1820 can be followed in the short term.

The parity, which is under selling pressure due to the appreciation of the dollar on a global basis, continues to hold above the 20-day moving average level and its movement within the rising channel that has been continuing since last September. With the economic data announced in the US last week, which was generally above the market expectations, the global level of 91.00 was maintained. Despite the ongoing pandemic problems in England, the strong stance in Sterling continues to support the parity, while the decline in the euro, especially against the appreciation of the dollar. We will continue to closely monitor the pricing and news flows in the market on the second trading day of the week.

When we analyzed it technically, it was observed that the parity continued to be determinant at the level of 1.3750. As long as 1.3700 is above the support level, purchases are possible and if the upward trend in the parity continues, 1.3780, 1.3820 and 1.3860 are important resistance levels to be followed. Support levels of 1.3650, 1.3590 and 1.3520 should be followed in the downward movement of the trend in the parity with possible sales.

The parity, which continued its upward movement in parallel with the continued appreciation of the dollar on a global basis and the dollar index maintaining a persistence above the level of 91.00, succeeded in breaking the downward trend that has been going on for about a year. It was seen that the announcement of the economic data announced in the USA on the market expectations in general was effective in the rise in the parity, which closed the last two trading weeks with an increase. After the first trading day of the week, which is calm in terms of data calendar, upward movements in the pair may continue today, and we will continue to closely monitor the pricing and news flows in the market.

When we examined it technically, it was observed that 105.40 level continues to be the determinant in the parity. If the upward trend continues as long as it remains above the 105.00 level, 105.80, 106.20 and 106.60 levels are important resistance levels to be followed, respectively. In case of a downward trend in the parity with possible sales, 105.00, 104.50 and 104.10 support levels can be followed.

After the last OPEC + meeting, Brent Petrol, which managed to hold above $ 55 even though it was difficult to continue its rise, turned its direction upwards with the expectations of an increase in energy demand under Joe Biden’s administration and the weakening dollar. Finally, Brent Petrol, which has started to rise by taking power from the 20-day moving average level, continues its movement in the rising channel that it started at the beginning of November. Although the International Energy Agency lowered global demand forecasts and increased corona virus cases reduce the optimism in the oil markets, we will continue to monitor the news flows in the market and the effect of the news on pricing on the second trading day of the week.

When we analyze it technically, if the upward trend in Oil continues, 60.60, 61.40 and 62.00 are important resistance levels to be followed as long as Brent Oil remains above 60.00 level. Support levels of 59,20, 58,50 and 57,80 can be followed in the downward movement of the trend with possible sales that may come.

Due to the global appreciation of the dollar, the increase in selling pressure was observed on the ounce gold side throughout the past week. The ounce of gold, which dropped below the 200-day moving average level of $ 1820 with its retreat last Thursday, tried to maintain above this level on the first trading day of the week. In addition to the reaction rises under the ounce, the increases experienced with the purchases in the exchange rate increased the gram gold to 417 TL, and after the first trading day of the week, which is calm in terms of data calendar, we will continue to monitor the news flows in the market and the effect of the news on the pricing.

When we examined it technically, it was observed that gram gold continued to be determinant at the 415 level. As long as 415 remains above the support level, if the uptrend continues, 418, 422 and 425 are important resistance levels to be followed. 410, 406 and 402 support levels should be followed in the downward movement of the trend under grams with possible sales.

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