Yesterday, domestic inflation data was under close follow-up. The CPI increased in the first month of 2021 compared to January of the previous year. The inflation rate, according to the twelve-month averages, was 12.53 percent. While the group that showed the most decrease both annually and monthly was clothing and footwear with -4.37 percent, the highest increase was in the health group with 4.25 percent. The groups with high increases in January 2021 were health with 4.25%, housing with 3.02% and household goods with 2.90%, respectively. Considering the contribution of Food and Transport inflation to the CPI by 4.7 and 3.3 points respectively, ie 8 points in total, we see how important agrarian reform steps are for the downward trend of food inflation in the upcoming period. Nevertheless, although the lagged effects of exchange rates continue to be missed in the upward trend in B and C indices in core inflation, if the stabilization and the decrease in volatility can be maintained by the Central Bank’s tight monetary policy, the negative base effect is exited until April and the inflation will decrease after the first quarter of the year. It may be possible for a directional trend to begin to form.
With Alphabet (NASDAQ 🙂 Inc’s strong balance sheet results and optimistic financial results in Europe, global stocks rose on Wednesday, while oil prices rose 52 for nearly a year, after data showed that US crude inventories had declined to their lowest since March. rose towards its highest level. ADP, which is considered as the leading indicator of the employment market in the US in the first month of the new year, signaled a recovery in private sector employment. According to ADP data, it increased 174 thousand in January. The expectation of the economists who participated in the Bloomberg survey was that this increase would be 70 thousand in January. The employment loss in December was revised from 123 thousand to 78 thousand. The recovery in the service sector was particularly effective in strengthening the data.
Silver recovered yesterday after falling from its nearly eight-year peak in pricing with the help of social media-inspired buying spree. Silver rose by 0.92% in the US to near the $ 27 level, with the hope that giving the government more financial incentives would help boost industrial demand.
In Europe, Germany’s index rose by 0.7%, reaching the highest level in two weeks. The hopes of Mario Draghi, former president of the European Central Bank, to become prime minister in Italy and the negative inflation in the region contributed to the positive atmosphere in Europe.
In domestic markets, the interest in the Stock Exchange continues at full speed. According to Central Registry Agency data for the first month of 2021, the number of new domestic investors increased by 179,307 people in January and reached 2 million 156 thousand. Compared to the number of new investors in December, this increase was approximately 9% higher. Public offerings have an effect on the increase in the number of investors. The monthly increase in foreign investors was determined as 358 persons.
Asian stocks are moving downward today as tight liquidity conditions in China are limiting purchases for now. In addition, the increase in company earnings, the expectations of large US incentives and the decrease in purchases made by individual investors through organizing on Reddit support risk sensitivity.
On the day we started with the first inflation data of 2021, while the monthly inflation data announced by TURKSTAT was 1.68%, above the market expectation of 1.40%, annual inflation was announced as 14.97%, slightly above the market expectation of 14.68%. On the other hand, in the first inflation report presentation of the year last week, while the central bank kept the year-end inflation forecast unchanged at 9.4 percent, CBRT Governor Naci Ağbal said that the monetary tightening that started in November showed a downward trend in inflation. While the strong stance in the dollar / TL exchange rate, which started to gain value after the statements of Naci Ağbal, continued after yesterday’s inflation data, the private sector non-agricultural employment data announced on the US side increased by 174 thousand, above the expectation of 49 thousand increase.
When we examined it technically, it was observed that it continued to be determinant at 7.15 level. 7.10, 7.06 and 7.02 levels are important support areas that should be followed in case the downward movement in exchange rate continues with the continuation of the downward pressure caused by money inflows. In case of persistence above 7.20, resistance levels of 7.22, 7.27 and 7.32 can be followed.
Following the FOMC January meeting held last week, with the statements of its chairman Powell, it was observed that while the dollar gained value on a global basis, this situation created a selling pressure in the Euro in the cross currency. On the other hand, the first inflation report of the year was published on the domestic side, and while the central bank kept its year-end inflation expectation at 9.4 percent, the January inflation data announced yesterday was above the market expectations both on a monthly and annual basis. Making a statement during the inflation presentation and afterwards, CBRT Governor Naci Ağbal said that we are facing high inflation risk in the short term and that the tight monetary policy will continue. After the statements of Naci Ağbal, the downward movements in the exchange rate continue with the appreciating TL.
When we examine it technically, we see that the cross continues to be priced around the 8.65 level. If the downward trend continues as long as it remains below this level, the important support levels to be followed are the levels of 8.62, 8.57 and 8.54, respectively. With the appreciation of the euro, the possible rises can be followed by 8.72, 8.79 and 8.84 and resistance levels.
The pair, which started the week with a retreat due to the rise, is trying to hold on to the technically important 1.2000 level. While the upward movement in the dollar index, which started to gain value with the announcement of the US President Joe Biden’s 1.9 trillion dollar epidemic support package, continued, while the US private sector non-farm employment data announced yesterday increased 174 thousand above the expectation of 49 thousand increase. With the effect of this, the parity may continue to move downwards before the unemployment rate and non-farm employment data to be announced on Friday. We will continue to closely monitor the pricing and news flows in the market on the fourth trading day of the week.
When we analyzed it technically, it was observed that the 1.2000 level continues to be the determinant in the parity. If it continues to stay above 1.2000 level, 1.2070, 1.2120 and 1.2180 levels are important resistance levels to be followed, respectively. If the pair continues its downward movement, support levels of 1.2000, 1.1960 and 1.1920 can be followed.
In the first FOMC meeting of the year held last week, the FED did not change the funding rate in line with the expectations and kept the interest rates fixed in the range of 0-0.25 percent, and did not make any changes in the asset purchase program. Fed chief Powell, who made a statement after the interest rate decision, underlined that the monetary policy will continue to support the economy until the epidemic is over, the sales pressure on the yellow metal, which dropped below the 100-day moving average of the dollar due to the dollar’s appreciation on a global basis, continues. The private sector non-agricultural employment data announced in the USA yesterday showed an increase of 174 thousand, above the expectations of 49 thousand change. After the US private sector non-farm employment data announced above expectations, the sales pressure on Ons may continue.
When we examined it technically, it was observed that the ounce of gold continued to be determinant at the level of $ 1820. If we see upward movements under the ounce, the levels of 1827, 1835 and 1842, respectively, are important resistance levels to be followed. If the downward movements continue, the support levels 1820, 1812 and 1805 can be followed in the short term.
Despite the continuing pandemic problems in the UK, the strong stance in the sterling supports the parity, while the dollar’s appreciation on a global basis after the FOMC meeting held last week, the parity continues its downward trend. Fed chair Powell, who made a statement after the first FOMC meeting of the year last week, underlined that monetary policy will continue to support the economy until the epidemic ends, while the private sector non-farm employment data announced yesterday in the US is above the expectation of 49,000 change. It increased by 174 thousand. We will continue to closely monitor pricing and news flows in the market on the fourth trading day of the week.
When we analyzed it technically, it was observed that the pair continued to be determinant at the 1.3600 level. As long as 1.3600 is above the support level, purchases are possible and if the upward trend in the pair continues, 1.3720, 1.3780 and 1.3820 are important resistance levels to be followed. Support levels of 1.3600, 1.3570 and 1.3520 should be followed in the downward movement of the trend in the parity with possible sales.
The pair, which has been in a downtrend for about a year, broke its downtrend with the rise it experienced last week. The parity, which closed the week above 104.50 with the rise that started from 103.60 levels last week, started by rising to the new week. The private sector non-farm employment data announced in the USA yesterday showed an increase of 174 thousand, above the expectations of 49 thousand change. After the US private sector non-farm employment data, which was announced above the expectations, the strong stance and value gain of the dollar on a global basis also continue. We will continue to closely monitor the pricing and news flows in the market on the fourth trading day of the week.
When we examined it technically, it was observed that the 105.00 level continued to be decisive. If the upward trend continues as long as it remains above the 105.00 level, 105.40, 105.80 and 106.20 levels are important resistance levels to be followed, respectively. In case of a downward trend in the parity with possible sales, the support levels of 104,40, 104,00 and 103,70 can be followed.
Brent oil, which managed to hold above $ 55, despite having difficulties in maintaining its rise after the OPEC + meeting, continues to rise with the expectations of an increase in energy demand in the Joe Biden administration and the weakening dollar. With the continuation of the upward movement in oil, the level of $ 57.35 tested on January 13 is retested, while the upward movements may accelerate in case of persistence above this level. As the International Energy Agency lowers global demand forecasts and increasing coronavirus cases reduce the optimism in the oil markets, we will continue to follow the pricing and news flows in the markets on the fourth trading day of the week.
Technically speaking, 58.70, 59.20 and 59.60 are important resistance levels to follow if the upward trend in oil continues with the purchases that may come as long as Brent oil remains above 57.70 level. Support levels of 57.20, 56.60 and 55.50 can be followed in the downward movement of the trend with possible sales.
After the inflation presentation published last week, the withdrawal in the exchange rate and the depreciation of Ounce Gold accelerated the withdrawal under Gram. After the inflation presentation and afterwards, CBRT Governor Naci Ağbal stated that the tight monetary policy will continue, the exchange rate continues to move below the 200-day moving average level with the appreciating TL. While the inflation data announced in the country was higher than the market expectations yesterday, we observed a retreat in the exchange rate after the data. On the other hand, the private sector non-agricultural employment data announced in the USA yesterday showed an increase of 174 thousand, above the expectation of 49 thousand change. We will continue to closely monitor pricing and news flows in the market on the fourth trading day of the week.
Technically speaking, it was observed that Gram gold continued to be decisive at the level of 420. As long as 420 stays above the support level, with purchases that may come, 424, 428 and 432 are important resistance levels to be followed in case the upward trend continues. In the downward movement of the trend under Gram with possible sales to come, 418, 415 and 412 support levels should be followed.