Yazar: Noreen Burke
Investing.com – Markets will face 2021’s first hard nut on Tuesday. The second round of the Georgia Senate elections, which will take place that day and whose consequences will be dire, will control the US Senate and determine the party that may affect elected President Joe Biden’s ability to implement the agenda. While vaccine distribution will likely continue in full swing with the end of the holiday season, the rapid spread of a new and more contagious strain of coronavirus means the road to economic gain may still be far away. On the other hand, energy investors will direct their attention to the OPEC + meeting on Monday, where a new increase in production will be on the agenda.
Here’s what you need to know when entering the new week:
1. The weight of politics
Markets are pleased with the idea of a Democratic presidency and a Democratic-controlled House alongside a Republican Senate as the best representation of both worlds. Although progressive policy changes will be prevented by tax increases, this scenario allows for large-scale incentives.
The Georgia election is expected to result in one or both incumbent Republican senators not losing the seats in order to maintain a weak Senate majority, but it’s a head-on race. If the Democrats take both seats, both parties will have 50 seats in the Senate, which will give the tie-breaking votes to the elected Vice-President Kamala Harris. Biden and Harris move to the office on January 20.
In other news, a dozen Republican senators are expected to challenge elected President Biden as the Electoral Board results are counted in Congress on Wednesday. While this is not expected to have any effect on the election result, the deepening animosity between the two political parties may indicate political risk for this year.
2. Vaccine distribution
With the number of cases in the US rising and vaccinations progressing slower than planned, Senator Mitt Romney on Friday urged the US government to fight by hiring veterinarians and paramedics to get coronavirus vaccines.
Although the US has approved two vaccines, the process is progressing slower than the government thought. About 2.8 million Americans received the Covid-19 vaccine as of December 31, but the target was 20 million.
The USA sees an average of 186,000 cases a day. That’s below the 218,000s he saw in mid-December. Health officials warned that the cases may increase again after meetings on vacation.
3. December work report
The first major data for 2021 in the US will be published Friday, figures likely to show a loss of momentum in the labor market.
The November data had already pointed out that the employment market was losing momentum, with 245,000 new jobs, a six-month low. The expectations for December are that an even smaller figure will be shared with 100,000.
The calendar will also include data on Tuesday, several Fed officials speeches on Wednesday, December, Thursday, and Vice President Richard Clarida on Friday.
4. Shake in the stock market
2020 has been a bombastic year for the stock markets. The markets saw both the longest bull market over and the shortest-lived bear market ever.
The increases that prompted the and indexes to end the year at record levels and set the index to record last week, partly due to massive fiscal and monetary incentives aimed at mitigating the effects of the coronavirus and partly by progress in the vaccine.
Trade can also be volatile in 2021, especially with Georgia round two results being determined. A democratic victory raises the likelihood that many investors will offer tax reforms that would hurt stock prices.
This week’s economic data seems to be a reminder that there is still a lot of time for economic recovery.
5.OPEC + will discuss supply and demand
OPEC + will hold an online meeting on Monday.
In a year when it turned negative for the first time in April, oil prices ended December positively.
In December, OPEC + abandoned plans to increase production by 2 million barrels per day, after a record supply cut of 7.7 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year to support prices. Instead, it has increased production by 500,000 barrels per day and has agreed that monthly additional adjustments will not exceed this amount.
Russia has pointed out that it will support another 500,000 barrel increase from February, but other members of the group are worried it is too early for this.
– This news has the contribution of Reuters.