Why do investors expect a drop in bitcoin price?

The anonymous investor, known as “Byzantine General,” thinks that the Bitcoin (BTC) price, continuing to test the $ 30,000 support, will drop in the short term.

While the BTC price managed to hold onto the key support level, the investor says the price action is not indicative of an upward trend:

“Amid all this chaos, look at the Bitcoin chart. Whichever way you look at it, it marks the decline. But we are currently in a support, so it will not offer a short position opportunity. You just have to wait. “

“Options market is decreasing in the short term”

Analysts are seeing a similar trend in the options market and previous Bitcoin fractals. Fractals are technical candlestick patterns that analysts often use to compare Bitcoin’s current price action with previous cycles.

Options market in the short term, according to analysts of data analytics company Laevitas signals the fall:

“While the Bitcoin consolidation continues, the sell-to-buy ratio on Deribit is over 2 points. The options market is giving signals of decline in the short term. “

Instruments traded in the bitcoin options market. Source: Laevitas

The options market has an ever greater impact on the bitcoin price trend as the current open position is above $ 3 billion.

Compared to previous periods, there are significantly more active option contracts and investors. This means that if there is selling pressure from the options market, there is a possibility to have a negative impact on the Bitcoin price.

According to the fractal determined by “Material Scientist” analysts, both historical price cycles and options market data point out that the consolidation period will continue in the short term. Analysts stated:

“The next fractal for Bitcoin, the 10-day forecast: $ 30K will be retested and then it will rise!”

With BTC / USDT fraction. Source: Material Indicators

Miner position index must be taken into account

One of the possible reasons why the bitcoin price continues to consolidate may be high selling pressure from miners.

CryptoQuant data shows that the Miner Position Index is relatively high, meaning that miners are investing Bitcoin in exchanges.

As miners are one of the few sources of external selling pressure in the BTC market, a high Miner Position Index often points to selling.

Bitcoin Miner Position Index. Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant CEO’su Ki Young Ju, In his post dated January 26, he stated::

“The BTC Miner Position Index saw its highest level in the last 8 years. They have been carrying an unusual amount of Bitcoin lately. It looks like they’ve been continuously receiving profits since $ 42,000. This is one of the reasons I keep my expectation of decline. “

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