USD / TL Continues to Hold Around 7.40 Level

Last week, the CBRT announced its policy rate at 17 percent, in line with the market expectations. In the statement made after the decision, it was stated that the tight stance in monetary policy will be maintained for a long time, while a strong course was observed in economic activity. As the reason for this decision, the CBRT has indicated its prediction that demand and cost factors that have an effect on inflation will gradually weaken. Following this development, with the formation of a hawkish-tone CBRT image, the appreciation on TL assets created a retreat movement of up to 7.35 in USD / TL. On the other hand if Turkey Consumer Confidence Index rose to 83.3 in January. The international loans in the last trading day of the week derelendir bodies S & P credit rating for Turkey “B +”, its outlook is “stable” outlook. In addition, S & P has revised upward its growth outlook for this year’s Turkey.

On the US side, with the appointment of Joe Biden as the new President, the expectations for the incentive package increased the risk appetite in the markets. The President of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, also announced that the new financial stimulus package was planned to be put to the vote in early February, strengthening this perception. On the other hand, if we look at the macroeconomic data announced, unemployment benefit applications decreased slightly, exceeding expectations in January. In addition, it is seen that the US and PMI numbers expand compared to the previous month.

After all these developments, if the dollar / TL, which completed the week around 7.40, settles above this level, the buying potential can be expected to increase with the resistance levels of 7.50 and 7.60. However, in a possible downward realization, we follow the continuation of the decreases below 7.40 within the framework of 7.30 and 7.20 support levels.

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